Case 39 / 183 Analyst

Full DCF from Scratch

Valuation & DCF

The prompt

“As a financial analyst, you're asked in an interview: "Walk me through how you would build a full discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation from scratch — project the unlevered free cash flows, determine the discount rate, estimate a terminal value, and bridge the result down to an equity value per share." Walk through how you'd answer that question, using a five-year operating forecast to build the complete model end to end.”

📋 What you're given

As a financial analyst, you're asked in an interview: "Walk me through how you would build a full discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation from scratch — project the unlevered free cash flows, determine the discount rate, estimate a terminal value, and bridge the result down to an equity value per share." Walk through how you'd answer that question, using a five-year operating forecast to build the complete model end to end.

1. Task Overview

Task: take a five-year operating forecast and build it into a full enterprise-to-equity valuation, the same way you would size up any company from scratch.

Step 1: Given Data — Operating and Capital Structure Assumptions

The forecast starts from a Year 0 revenue base, together with the operating, financing, and capital structure assumptions needed to build the model end to end.

Line ItemValue
Current Year (Year 0) Revenue$500.0m
Year 1 Revenue Growth10.0% (0.10)
Year 2 Revenue Growth8.0% (0.08)
Year 3 Revenue Growth7.0% (0.07)
Year 4 Revenue Growth6.0% (0.06)
Year 5 Revenue Growth5.0% (0.05)
EBITDA Margin (all years)22.0% (0.22)
D&A (% of Revenue)4.0% (0.04)
CapEx (% of Revenue)5.0% (0.05)
Increase in Net Working Capital (% of Revenue growth)2.0% (0.02)
Tax Rate25.0% (0.25)
Cost of Equity (Re)11.0% (0.11)
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt (Rd)5.0% (0.05)
Target Equity Weight, E/(D+E)60.0% (0.60)
Target Debt Weight, D/(D+E)40.0% (0.40)
Terminal Growth Rate (g)2.5% (0.025)
Net Debt$300.0m
Shares Outstanding100.0m

Step 2: Revenue Build

Show Revenue Build Formula

Revenue (Year t) = Revenue (Year t-1) × (1 + Growth Rate, Year t)

Using this formula, compute Revenue for Year 1 through Year 5.

Step 3: EBITDA, D&A, and EBIT

Show EBITDA, D&A, and EBIT Formula

EBITDA = Revenue × EBITDA Margin; D&A = Revenue × D&A %; EBIT = EBITDA - D&A

Using this formula, compute EBITDA, D&A, and EBIT for each year.

Step 4: Unlevered Free Cash Flow

Show Unlevered Free Cash Flow Formula

Unlevered FCF = EBIT × (1 - Tax Rate) + D&A - CapEx - Increase in Net Working Capital

Using this formula, compute Unlevered FCF for each year.

Step 5: Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Show WACC Formula

WACC = (E/(D+E) × Re) + (D/(D+E) × Rd × (1 - Tax Rate))

Using this formula, compute the discount rate used for the entire model.

Step 6: Terminal Value

Show Terminal Value Formula

Terminal Value = FCF (Year 5) × (1 + g) / (WACC - g)

Using this formula, compute the Terminal Value as of the end of Year 5.

Step 7: Present Value of Cash Flows and Enterprise Value

Show Present Value and Enterprise Value Formula

PV = Cash Flow (Year t) / (1 + WACC)^t; Enterprise Value = Sum of PV(Unlevered FCF, Year 1-5) + PV(Terminal Value)

Using this formula, discount each year's Unlevered FCF and the Terminal Value back to the present, then sum them into an Enterprise Value.

Step 8: Equity Value and Value Per Share

Show Equity Bridge Formula

Equity Value = Enterprise Value - Net Debt; Value Per Share = Equity Value / Shares Outstanding

Using this formula and the assumptions given in Step 1, compute Equity Value and the implied Value Per Share.

💡 Model answer

Try answering out loud first — then reveal the model answer and compare.

⚠️ Common mistakes

  • Discounting the Terminal Value with the wrong period count — it is calculated as of the end of Year 5, so it must use the same Year-5 discount factor as the final forecast-year cash flow, not a Year-6 factor.
  • Forgetting to tax-effect EBIT before adding back D&A and subtracting CapEx and the change in Net Working Capital — mixing a pre-tax profit figure into an otherwise after-tax cash flow build.
  • Using the pre-tax cost of debt directly inside WACC instead of applying the (1 - Tax Rate) shield, which overstates the discount rate and understates the valuation.
  • Confusing Enterprise Value with Equity Value — subtracting Net Debt is exactly what bridges from the value of the whole business to the value that belongs to shareholders.
  • Picking a terminal growth rate above long-run GDP or inflation growth, which silently inflates the Terminal Value (and therefore most of the total valuation) without the assumption ever being sanity-checked.

🔁 Follow-up questions

➡️ Related cases

Previous Case 38: Simple DCF: Three Steps Next Case 40: Comparable Company Analysis

⭐ Rate this case

0 ratings

💬 Comments (0)

No comments yet — be the first to ask a question.

Part of a 183-case learning path. Create a free account to save progress & unlock follow-up answers.
Create free account