Case 37 / 183 Entry

Terminal Value: Gordon Growth

Valuation & DCF

The prompt

“As a financial analyst, you're asked in an interview: "Walk me through how you'd calculate a DCF's Terminal Value using the Gordon Growth method, and explain why the growth rate assumption matters so much." Walk through how you'd answer that question, using a sample company's final-year free cash flow to show how the terminal value is built and why it ends up dominating total enterprise value.”

📋 What you're given

As a financial analyst, you're asked in an interview: "Walk me through how you'd calculate a DCF's Terminal Value using the Gordon Growth method, and explain why the growth rate assumption matters so much." Walk through how you'd answer that question, using a sample company's final-year free cash flow to show how the terminal value is built and why it ends up dominating total enterprise value.

1. Task Overview

Task: explain how the Gordon Growth method converts a company's final projected cash flow into a Terminal Value, and show why that single number can end up carrying most of the total DCF valuation.

Step 1: Given Data — DCF Inputs

You are given the following inputs from a 5-year explicit forecast.

Line ItemValue
Final Explicit-Period Free Cash Flow (Year 5)$50.0m
Perpetuity Growth Rate (g)2.5% (0.025)
WACC (Discount Rate)9.0% (0.09)
Number of Discounting Periods (n)5
PV of Explicit-Period FCFs (Years 1–5)$185.0m

Step 2: Terminal Value (Undiscounted)

Show Terminal Value Formula

Terminal Value = FCF(final year) × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)

Using this formula, compute the undiscounted Terminal Value as of the end of Year 5.

Step 3: Present Value of Terminal Value

Show PV of Terminal Value Formula

PV of Terminal Value = Terminal Value / (1 + WACC)^n

Using this formula, discount the Year 5 Terminal Value back to today.

Step 4: Enterprise Value and Terminal Value's Share of It

Show Enterprise Value Formula

Enterprise Value = PV of Explicit-Period FCFs + PV of Terminal Value

Using this formula, compute Enterprise Value and the share of it that comes from the Terminal Value.

💡 Model answer

Try answering out loud first — then reveal the model answer and compare.

⚠️ Common mistakes

  • Using a perpetuity growth rate above long-run GDP or inflation growth, which implies the company eventually outgrows the entire economy forever
  • Forgetting to discount the Terminal Value back to present value — leaving it at its Year-5 value overstates Enterprise Value
  • Using the wrong free cash flow as the formula's base, such as an average of forecast years instead of the final "steady-state" year's cash flow
  • Writing the denominator backwards as (g − WACC) instead of (WACC − g), which produces a negative and meaningless Terminal Value
  • Treating Terminal Value's large share of Enterprise Value as a red flag rather than a normal feature of DCF math — the real diagnostic is whether the growth and discount rate assumptions behind it are defensible, not the percentage itself

🔁 Follow-up questions

➡️ Related cases

Previous Case 36: WACC: The Building Blocks Next Case 38: Simple DCF: Three Steps

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