CapEx vs. D&A: A Manufacturer Mid-Expansion

DCF

The prompt

“This industrial manufacturer just broke ground on a new $200M plant. Walk me through what happens to CapEx, D&A, and Free Cash Flow over the next few years — and why a strong EBITDA margin doesn’t mean strong free cash flow here.”

📋 What you're given

Use these assumptions:

  • Revenue: $1.2B; EBITDA margin: 22% (≈ $264M EBITDA)
  • Existing net PP&E: $600M, average remaining useful life ≈ 12 years → run-rate (maintenance) D&A ≈ $50M/year
  • New plant: $200M total cost, spent $100M in Year 1 and $100M in Year 2, comes online at the start of Year 3
  • New plant depreciated straight-line over 20 years once operational
  • Tax rate: 25%; ignore working capital changes for this exercise
Year 1Year 2Year 3
Maintenance CapEx$50M$50M$50M
Growth CapEx (new plant)$100M$100M$0M
Total CapEx$150M$150M$50M
D&A$50M$50M$60M
CapEx − D&A+$100M+$100M−$10M
Show Unlevered FCF Formula

Unlevered FCF = EBIT × (1 − Tax Rate) + D&A − CapEx − Increase in NWC

Show Straight-Line Depreciation Formula

Annual Depreciation = Cost of Asset ÷ Useful Life

💡 Model answer

Try answering out loud first — then reveal the model answer and compare.

⚠️ Common mistakes

  • Assuming CapEx = D&A is always a safe modeling shortcut — it only holds in a mature, steady-state business, not during an expansion phase like this one
  • Forgetting that D&A is a non-cash add-back when bridging from Net Income or EBIT to Free Cash Flow
  • Not separating maintenance CapEx (sustains existing capacity, roughly tracks D&A) from growth CapEx (expands capacity, has no offsetting D&A yet)
  • Treating a strong EBITDA margin as proof of strong cash conversion — EBITDA is calculated before both CapEx and D&A
  • Expecting the new plant's D&A to match its $200M cost in the year it's built, instead of spread over its full useful life

🔁 Follow-up questions

🔁 Other versions of this case

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